Filipe S. Cardoso, Sean M. Bagshaw, Juan G. Abraldes, Norman M. Kneteman, Glenda Meeberg, Pedro Fidalgo, Constantine J. Karvellas
Background. Improving estimation of long-term survival of patients with end-stage liver disease after orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT) would optimize decisions on eligibility for transplant. We aimed to externally validate previously derived Charlson Comorbity Index for OLT (CCI-OLT); subsequently, we developed a new model to predict 5-year mortality after transplant. Material and methods. This single center retrospective cohort study included 524 consecutive adult cirrhotic patients who underwent OLT in 2002-2012. External validation of CCI-OLT used Kaplan-Meier method. Derivation of the new predictive model used Cox proportional hazards regression. Results. One-, 3-, and 5-year cumulative survival after OLT was 89%, 80%, and 73%, respectively. CCI-OLT was not associated with 5-year mortality after transplant (P = 0.34). We derived and internally validated a new predictive model of 5-year mortality after OLT based on six pre-transplant characteristics of patients: age, body mass index, hepatitis C, hepatic encephalopathy, intensive care unit stay at transplant, and live donor (C-index = 0.64). We further developed a nomogram to estimate individual probability of 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival after OLT. Conclusions. In our cohort, CCI-OLT was not associated with survival following transplant. The new predictive model discriminative capacity was only modest, suggesting that pre-transplant characteristics are of limited value in predicting post-transplant outcomes in thoroughly selected patients.
Key words. Cirrhosis., Transplant., Risk prediction., Long-term survival., Nomogram.